Panama City Fla. (WMBB) – I am cautiously optimistic for Saturday. An MCS will likely move through the area early to mid-afternoon after just scattered showers and storms in the morning. The MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) or storm complex if you will, should bring around heavy rain and the threat of severe weather with the wind being the biggest concern from those storms, small hail, and a brief tornado threat is possible the MCS should move through quickly with just about a 3 to 4-hour window before clearing the area.
The biggest question mark at the moment is how much will the atmosphere destabilize for more storms late in the evening / overnight Saturday. We will be in a prime spot for storms to rotate if they can mature enough. They need energy to do so and the MCS earlier in the day will likely take that away. If the MCS does not occur then Saturday night the main concern would be tornadoes. If there is little energy to work with then we just have some low-level quick-moving downpours Saturday night.
We will update as much as possible as storms approach the area and will communicate the threat if there is any into the night tomorrow. I think Saturday will just be around wind and rain with storms in the MCS with a low tornado risk and we will just have low-level showers Saturday night. That’s why I’m optimistic but we will see how it comes together and be ready if it turns out not so well.
Sunday morning early the front will clear us we should even see the sun return by the afternoon it will be breezy Sunday but a mostly dry and nice day is expected. Much of next week will be boring, calm, nice weather. The temps will slowly rise and a few pieces of energy may be able to sneak a shower in but that’s about it. We have to get through Saturday which again I see a path where things could get worse but I also think things will play out right so that we don’t maximize the potential of the atmosphere on Saturday.