PANAMA CITY, Fla. (WMBB-TV) – Rain chances start the week lower, but eventually the rain chances will increase. When? The best chances of rain this week will be Thursday through Sunday. We should see some dry air slide in to lower the rain chances by Labor Day.

The big wrench in the forecast is the tropics and how close a storm could be to the southeast coast by Sunday. The favored solution at the moment is that the storm will find a weakness in the trough and recurve well to the east of the US. There are other possible outcomes so you should keep up with the latest as this week goes on.

TROPICAL UPDATE – 8/30/22 – 4 AM CDT

Good news! There are now only two tropical waves with any real potential to develop out in the Atlantic now. We have a new wave coming off the coast of Africa that has a less than 50% chance of formation over the next two to five days. We’ll need to keep an eye on this one.

More importantly and making a closer approach to the US right now is a tropical wave in the central Atlantic now referred to Invest 91L. It is just shy of 900 miles away from the Lesser Antilles and moving west/northwest at 5-10 mph. Model trends have been pretty consistently indicating a northwest movement over the next few days with a curve north/northeast over the weekend. This wave is struggling to develop right now due to strong upper level wind shear and dry air/Saharan dust. There is a chance this may never form into anything tropical. Regardless, we’re focusing our attention on this wave and monitoring its potential path closely.

There is nothing to be really concerned with right now. Check back for updates daily!