PANAMA CITY Fla. (WMBB) — Meteorologist Kristen Kennedy details the latest forecast regarding the potential tropical low trying to develop in the Gulf of Mexico and breaks down the “what if” scenarios that will bring differing impacts to the Panhandle.

We’re keeping a close eye on the northern Gulf of Mexico for potential tropical development this week. As of 10 AM CDT Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center has given the area a 30% chance of formation within 5 days.

A surface low will likely develop along a stalled boundary Wednesday into Thursday. As the low slips southwest towards Louisiana and over the northern Gulf, it will become stagnant. Sitting over and/or near the Gulf of Mexico, it will have the potential to organize into a tropical depression or possibly a tropical storm. The next name on the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season list is “Danielle.”

It’s far too early to tell where the storm system may go or what its local impacts may be at this time, as it hasn’t even formed yet and it may not. What we do know, though, is that the stalled boundaries and increased tropical moisture across the area will enhance our rain chances this week, giving way to scattered and widespread showers and storms each day over the next seven.

If the tropical low does form and organize, it will be named Danielle. The greatest threat for such a system will remain heavy rainfall and the potential for flooding, after widespread rain in the preceding days will raise the water table. Flash flooding will remain possible all week, especially with storms that barely move but continue to drop heavy rainfall.

Rainfall totals, without the low, are forecast to range from 4-6 inches with additional higher amounts in isolated locations. IF the tropical low forms, it will likely increase rainfall totals with more heavy rain expected. These numbers could double. Regardless, it is going to be a very wet week across northwest Florida.

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