Invest 98L

PANAMA CITY, Fla. WEATHER (WMBB) — Day after day, updated tropical forecasts continue to trend towards a potential hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico sometime next week.

As of Thursday morning, the area of convection located due north of Venezuela, now labeled Invest 98L, is expected to form into a tropical depression in the next 2-5 days. When this happens, The National Hurricane Center will name the storm Hermine.

Upper-level winds are currently causing the disturbance to remain unorganized, but it will soon move into a favorable environment throughout Saturday and Sunday, south of Cuba and east of the Central American coast.

This environment will have little to no wind shear, very warm waters, and little to no dry air or dust, giving cause to probable hurricane development.

Current temperatures in tropical waters.
Spaghetti models are in fair agreement at Invest 98L and will traverse into the western Caribbean Sunday.

The accuracy and precision of the forecast track of Hermine after Monday then falls significantly.

The European model takes a faster route, with the center of the storm crossing western Cuba and towards southwestern Florida by September 29th, while the American model (GFS) pushes the storm through the southern Gulf of Mexico and towards western Louisiana around October 2nd.

Both show vast differences in strength as well.

Orange areas should begin planning for potential tropical impacts. Yellow areas should be making a daily check of the forecast.

Neither of the solutions from the Euro or GFS expected to verify at the moment.

Because of the very favorable environment forecasted in the western Caribbean this weekend, populations in the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba should begin planning for potential tropical impacts.

Populations living along the Gulf Coast should be making a daily check of the forecast in order the make the right plan for when the storm pushes past the western Caribbean and towards the southern Gulf Monday.