PANAMA CITY, Fla. WEATHER (WMBB) – A boundary has stalled across the Southeast this past week, bringing high rain chances to the Panhandle for several days.
Reaching into the end of the work week chances for moisture are expected to remain high.
Throughout the past 5 days, areas have recorded widespread rainfall totals around 1.5″, but localized areas have seen much greater. Pensacola recorded almost 7 inches, while many areas along the coast noted between 2-4″.
Over the next couple of days, the forecast is expected to remain generally the same, with most areas throughout Northwest Florida expecting anywhere from 60-80% chances for showers and storms throughout each day.
Throughout Thursday the region will remain within a 15% likelihood that the rainfall will surpass the point of flash flooding. This means that where storms develop there is a greater expectation of flash flooding, and therefore warnings may be issued. Many storms will have the potential to drop over 2 inches of rain at a time.
This will also be the case for Friday, as a majority of the Florida Panhandle is expected to remain under a slight risk for excessive rainfall. However, the chance for severe weather will be lowered to a general thunderstorm risk. A level 1 out of 5.
Throughout the next 2 days, storm impacts will feature mostly heavy rains, which will lower visibilities along the roads, as well as cause potential flooding. Other impacts will include gusty winds, and potentially damaging gales within stronger storms.
By Sunday of next week, the weakened moisture boundary is expected to remain draped along the Southeast, but the boundary will gradually move on as an upper-level trough pushes its way into the eastern US.
This will hinder the formation of numerous and widespread showers and storms come Saturday and Sunday, in turn depleting the flash flood risk too. However, the daily rain chance will remain around 50-60%.
When the upper-level trough arrives Monday, additional forcing in the atmosphere will increase rain chances once again.