Tracking the Tropics: Dorian forecast to be slightly stronger this weekend near Bahamas


TAMPA, Fla. (WFLA) – Dorian remains a Tropical Storm as of 11 a.m. Monday with sustained winds estimated at 60 mph with higher gusts. Further strengthening is forecast with favorable environmental conditions out ahead of the storm.

Tropical-storm-force winds continue to remain isolated to about 45 miles out from the center, making Dorian a compact storm.

Tropical Storm conditions are expected in the Windward Islands later today with hurricane conditions possible in portions of the northern Windward Islands.

The storm is currently sitting in warm waters and weaker upper-level winds. This will allow for that further strengthening, however, Dorian is still surrounded by Saharan dust. This keeps the strengthening to a minimum.

Dorian will slowly turn northwestward Wednesday bringing it through the Caribbean Islands. Dorian is forecast to be a hurricane as it passes near Puerto Rico and eastern Hispaniola Wednesday.

Dorian’s official forecast track from the National Hurricane Center has a Category 1 hurricane moving through Hispaniola on Wednesday morning with winds of 80 mph. Thereafter, some weakening is anticipated due to the interaction with the mountainous islands along with stronger wind shear.

However, as of the 11 a.m. advisory, Dorian is now forecast to remain at tropical storm strength moving into the Bahamas Saturday with sustained winds at 50 mph. This is a change from previous updates where Dorian was expected to weaken to a depression.

The National Hurricane Center expresses lower than normal confidence levels for the intensity forecasts. This is due to Dorian not being as organized as typical tropical storms. Dorian remains with an open eyewall making it difficult to determine strengthening rates.

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