PANAMA CITY, Fla. (WMBB) – The National Hurricane Center continues to issue advisories on Tropical Storm Dorian and as of Sunday night it remains on our radar as a Tropical Storm.
At 10 p.m. the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located about 300 miles east-southeast of Barbados and moving west at 14 mph. Maximum winds have remained near 50 mph since Sunday morning and the central pressure is holding steady at 1003 mb.
A turn toward the west-northwest is expected on Monday, with this motion continuing through Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian is expected to be near the Windward Islands late Monday or early Tuesday and move into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday.
Some strengthening is expected during this time and Dorian could be near hurricane strength by Tuesday over the eastern Caribbean Sea, but the intensity forecast for this storm is a challenge since model guidance shows a wide range of possibilities.
The global models dissipate dorian over the Caribbean in about 4 days, probably due to the hostile environment associated with an upper-level low near the island of Hispaniola. Another unfavorable factor could be dry air that is also forecast by the global models over the Caribbean. On the other hand, the statistical/dynamical models do not weaken the system until it interacts with the land mass of Hispaniola.
Regardless of Dorian’s development, Tropical Storm conditions are expected in portions of the Lesser Antilles by Tuesday with 2 to 6 inches of rainfall as well.
The 13 First Alert Storm Team will continue to monitor this disturbance, and others during the 2019 Hurricane Season, and updates will be posted here and on our social media accounts.