NHC increases Tropical Formation Chance to 80%


MIAMI, Fla. (WMBB) – Meteorologists are continuing to watch a weak disturbance moving into the Gulf of Mexico for tropical development this week.

On Monday, the National Hurricane Center increased the formation chance to 80% making it more likely we will see a tropical low develop in the Gulf by Thursday.

National Hurricane Center 5-Day Tropical Outlook

Weather models continue to pick up on the disturbance in the Gulf possibly forming into a tropical depression, or tropical storm, however confidence is very low for additional strengthening beyond a tropical storm.

Heavy rainfall will be a good possibility starting by the middle to end of the work week and into the weekend. Make sure you take prepare for torrential downpours, and the possibility of picking up 4 to 7 inches of rain.

The track for this system is becoming a bit more apparent as several of the models are bringing it westward towards Texas/Louisiana coastline, but not all the models agree on that scenario.

As always, there is going to be slight changes to this forecast as we continue to fine tune the details over the next couple of days.

A trough of low pressure located over central Georgia is forecast to move southward toward the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, where a broad area of low pressure is expected to form in a couple of days. Some gradual development is possible thereafter and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end of the week while the low meanders near the northern Gulf Coast. Regardless of development, this system has the potential to produce heavy rainfall along portions of the northern and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast later this week. For more information about the rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather forecast office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center. Interests along the northern Gulf Coast and the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.

National Hurricane Center

The 13 First Alert Storm Team will be monitoring this situation and updates will be posted here and on our social media accounts.

Want to check out spaghetti models yourself if/when this storm forms? Download the VIPIR mobile app for Android Here or iOS here.

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