An early tropical system may be brewing over the next 5 days.
It’s not unusual for tropical systems to form in May. In fact, we had the first tropical system form last year on May 20. Storms that form early in the year have a few disadvantages to strengthen.
The Atlantic is still a hostile basin as shear is high in May and water temperatures are less than optimal this time of year. Still, we will be watching going into this weekend as a sub-tropical Low or Hybrid low will likely form.
Tropical Systems are warm-core meaning that the center of the storm is warm. The lows you deal with on a regular basis that bring us our weather year-round are cold-core. A Sub-tropical system is a combination of both. It has a warm core but also has a frontal system with it.
These storms can transition from cold-core to warm core and back under the right conditions.
As we move through the weekend a trough will develop in the Bahamas and this will serve as an area for a low to form. This low will develop sub-tropical characteristics as it moves to the north and east away from the Bahamas. If tropical characteristics are found with this system it would be named Arthur.
However, early activity provides us zero insight into the rest of the season.
This system even if it becomes a named storm, will remain weak and move away into the Atlantic. At this time outside of the Bahamas, very little impact is expected. The Carolina’s could experience some swell thanks to this system. The Panhandle of Florida will experience very little if any impact from this storm.
By Tuesday this system will merge with a trough and move swiftly into the northern Atlantic. While this one won’t impact the Panhandle Hurricane Season starts soon and you should be preparing for it now.