Dorian stays a tropical storm

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PANAMA CITY, Fla. (WMBB) – The latest intermediate advisory on Tropical Storm Dorian shows the center of circulation has reformed much farther north than the original center.

At 2:00 PM AST, data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and the Martinique radar indicate that the center of Tropical Storm Dorian has reformed farther north near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 62.0 West, about 370 miles east-southeast of Puerto Rico.

National Hurricane Center


The forecast track and intensity have not changed with this advisory, but we will know more when the latest model runs come in that initialize the new center of circulation.

As of Tuesday afternoon, Dorian is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph, and this motion is expected to continue through tonight followed by a turn toward the northwest on Wednesday.

On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will move across the eastern and northeastern Caribbean Sea during the next few days, passing near or south of Puerto Rico on Wednesday, move near or over eastern Hispaniola Wednesday night, and move north of Hispaniola on Thursday.

Dorian 5 day forecast

On Thursday night and Friday, the center of Dorian is forecast to move near the Turks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas.

The initial advisory is posted below.

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PANAMA CITY, Fla. (WMBB) – Tropical Storm Dorian is still churning in the Atlantic basin, but slowly crossing into the Caribbean Sea as of Tuesday morning.

Dorian is still 415 miles southeast of Puerto Rico and has maintained wind speeds of 50 mph. Minimum central pressure is at 1005 mb, which is slightly higher than yesterday and could signal slight weakening.

This storm has been battling unfavorable conditions, with strong wind shear and dry air as it crosses the Windward Islands into the Caribbean Sea.

However, models show wind shear could relax some and sea surface temperatures are more than sufficient enough (83-85 degrees) to sustain Dorian as a weak tropical storm.

Current Sea Surface Temperaures in the Atlantic, Gulf and Carribean

On Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center said an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft was investigating Dorian, but were having trouble identifying a clear-cut center of circulation within the storm.

The 5 day track for Dorian has not changed much, with more uncertainty lying in the intensity forecast due to the expected interaction with high terrain on the island of Hispaniola.

Most of the ensemble forecast models keep Dorian at a Tropical Storm with sustained winds less than 70 mph, and very few bring it to hurricane status.

Dorian is expected to get to Puerto Rico and Hispaniola by Wednesday evening and continue moving to the northwest at 14 mph. It could then make a gradual west-northwesterly turn on Saturday into Sunday.

This could bring it to the Florida peninsula as we gear up for Labor Day, however it’s too still too far out to discuss any potential impacts to the panhandle.

Governor Ron DeSantis also tweeted Tuesday reminding east coast residents to get prepared and encouraging everyone else to keep an eye on this storm.

The 13 First Alert Storm Team will continue to monitor Dorian’s progress through the Caribbean Sea this week and updates will be posted here as well as on our social media accounts.

You can also track the tropics by downloading the WMBB VIPIR mobile app for Android here or iOS here.

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