10pm Advisory on Tropical Storm Michael


At 1000 PM CDT, the center of Tropical Storm Michael was located near Cancun, Mexico moving toward the north near 5 mph with a central pressure of 997mb.

A general northward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.

Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Michael is forecast to become a hurricane Monday night or Tuesday.

On the forecast track, the center of Michael will move over the Yucatan Channel or extreme western Cuba on Monday, and then across the eastern Gulf of Mexico late Monday through Tuesday night.

It will then approach the northeastern Gulf Coast on Wednesday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
Cuban coast within the warning area later tonight, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.

RAINFALL:  Michael is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 3 to 7 inches over western Cuba and 2 to 4 inches over the
Yucatan Peninsula and Belize through Tuesday.  Isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches are possible in western Cuba.  This rainfall
could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides in areas
of mountainous terrain.

Elsewhere, outer rain bands from Michael are expected to produce
total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches across the Florida Keys
through Tuesday.

Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.

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